000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 06N76W TO 03N83W TO 03N103W TO 12N117W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS AT 86W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS TO THE W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ALONG 
THE W BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ITS AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 
32N140W 25N140W 17N144W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS ALREADY 
DISSIPATING ALONG 32N137W 26N141W AND IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT 
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NW SWELLS MAXING AT 16 FT AT 30N140W WILL 
PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE DECAYING FRONT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS 
THEY CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER CONVECTION 
THAT FLARED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS ADVECTED N ALONG LINE 
20N142W TO BEYOND 32N133W.
    
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH ITS AXIS 
OVER OLD MEXICO TO THE N OF 21N ALONG 100W. BETWEEN THESE TWO 
UPPER TROUGHS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 7N115W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ALONG 25N119W TO BEYOND 35N125W. THIS RIDGE 
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E THU ALLOWING THE UPSTREAM TROUGH TO MOVE 
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE 
PATTERN ALOFT...EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONES ARE NOTED NEAR 28N121W 
AND NEAR 12N140W. AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 
31N129W 1026 MB WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N107W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN RIDGES W ACROSS
THE TROPICAL E PAC E OF 95W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 20N E 
OF 107W.    

GAP WINDS...CURRENTLY E WINDS SURGING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 
TONIGHT THEN A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 20 KT THU AND GRADUAL INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 30 KT JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE 
HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS 
N OF 25N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS SURGING THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO A GALE AROUND SUNRISE TODAY FURTHER 
INCREASING TO MINIMAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU 
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST AFTER SUNRISE 
FRI MORNING...WEAKENING THEREAFTER. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT ON FRI MORNING.

$$
NELSON