000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270419
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 4N77W 2N89W 9N110W 9N119W 4N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING NW PORTION OF BASIN WITH AXIS 
CURRENTLY ALONG FROM 32N141W TO 8N152W.  SW JET CORE 105 KT 
AHEAD OF TROUGH ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENTLY 
ENTERING E PAC NW CORNER.  DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED RIDGE N OF 
25N BETWEEN 115W-131W CUT OFF FROM MAIN RIDGE S OF 20N BY 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 29N122W WITH TROUGH TO 12N125W.  GFS TAKES 
RIDGE E WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS 
FLATTENS CREST INTO ZONAL FLOW E OF 113W.  AREA OF DIFFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN MAIN RIDGE AND TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 126W-137W. MAIN BODY OF RIDGE REMAINS 
S OF 25N E OF 120W ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
NE INTO SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO.

WELL ANCHORED STATIONARY HIGH PRES 1025 MB CENTER AT 37N126W 
STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO ABOVE 
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH.  HIGH PRES ALSO CAUSING STRONG 
WINDS ALONG BOTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS 
...ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE SWELL TRAINS AS HIGH AS 14 FT LIKELY 
TO LINGER AND SPREAD SE THROUGH ENTIRE E PAC N OF 10N W OF 110W. 

CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REBUILDING AFTER COLD FRONT WEAKENED IT WILL 
BRING STRONG ELY TRADES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  E WIND WILL INCREASE TO REACH 
20-25 KT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE TEXAS MOVE 
INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH NLY SURGE SQUEEZING INTO GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG 
GALE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED AND FURTHER INCREASE TO PEAK AT 
STORM FORCE LATE WED THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING 
AND BELOW GALE BY LATE THU.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES