000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262219
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2200 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 05N77W 02N90W 06N110W 9N110W 08N120W 06N130W 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 126W-136W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 
01N86W TO 04N87W AND WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 07N84W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHING NW PORTION OF BASIN WITH AXIS 
CURRENTLY ALONG FROM 32N144W TO 6N155W.  SW JET CORE 100 KT 
AHEAD OF TROUGH ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENTLY 
ENTERING E PAC NW CORNER.  DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED RIDGE N OF 
25N BETWEEN 115W-131W CUT OFF FROM MAIN RIDGE S OF 20N BY 
COMPLEX CYCLONIC VORTICES AT 29N121W AND 23N128W.  GFS TAKES 
RIDGE E WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS 
FLATTENS CREST INTO ZONAL FLOW E OF 110W.  AREA OF DIFFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN MAIN RIDGE AND COMPLEX VORTICES ENHANCING SCATTERED 
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 126W-136W. MAIN BODY OF RIDGE 
REMAINS S OF 25N E OF 120W ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
FROM ITCZ NE INTO SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO.

WELL ANCHORED STATIONARY HIGH PRES CENTER AT 33N127W STRONG 
ENOUGH TO HOLD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO ABOVE 
MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH.  HIGH PRES ALSO CAUSING STRONG 
WINDS ALONG BOTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTS THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS
...ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE SWELL TRAINS AS HIGH AS 14 FT LIKELY 
TO LINGER AND SPREAD SE THROUGH ENTIRE E PAC N OF 10N W OF 110W. 

CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE REBUILDING AFTER COLD FRONT WEAKENED IT WILL 
BRING STRONG ELY TRADES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  E WIND WILL INCREASE TO REACH 
20-25 KT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.   

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE TEXAS MOVE 
INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH NLY SURGE SQUEEZING INTO GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG 
GALE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WED AND FURTHER INCREASE TO PEAK 
STORM FORCE LATE WED THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY THU MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES