000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261625
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...


ITCZ AXIS 05N77W TO 02N90W TO 07N105W TO 09N120W TO 05N130W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-120W AND BETWEEN 126.5W-132W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 01N86W TO 04N87W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 
07N84W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION
WITH ITS AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG FROM 32N143W TO 16N148W. UPPER AIR
DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 
RANGE OF 75-90 KT...ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH E TO A LINE FROM 
32N130W TO 16N140W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BECOMING
STATIONARY FROM 32N138W TO W OF THE AREA AT 27N140W. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW PORTION. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE TRADES BETWEEN 120W-130W AND ALSO
FROM 9N-22N W OF 130W AS GRADIENT THERE TIGHTENS AS WELL. SWELLS
UP TO POSSIBLY TO 11 FT WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THESE WATERS 
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...A RATHER HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS NOTED
N OF 20N BETWEEN 120W-132W WITH ITS MID/UPPER AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
15N136W NE TO 25N130W TO WELL NE OF THE REGION AT 32124W AND TO
OVER THE NW UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND
FLATTEN OUT OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE SW UNITED STATES TO A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING E 15 KT NEAR 26N123W. THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES SSW TO 18N130W AND TO 12N130W. THE WILL SHIFT
EWD TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WRN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
36 HRS. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 126W-131W. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 9N BETWEEN 104W-121W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT S OF 17N W OF 130W. 
  
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING
S TO OVER SRN MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE 
SE OF THE TROUGH COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA AND CONTINUES SE TO 
THE NRN SECTION OF S AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING W 20 
KT IS S OF THE REGION NEAR 1S104.5W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
COVERS THE AREA S OF 7N BETWEEN 92W-116W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
PREVAILS TO THE S OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...CURRENTLY NE WINDS TO 20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 
1200 UTC THIS MORNING...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY 
EARLY THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT BY THU MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 15-20 KT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS N 
OF 25N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED EVENING THEN DIMINISH.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE TEXAS WILL 
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE 
SQUEEZING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15-20 KT EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK WED AND FURTHER INCREASE STORM FORCE WED EVENING. THESE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE THU MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE