000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 05N77W TO 05N92W TO 06N98W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
83W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 09.5N116W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
LINE 11N130W TO 06N127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW PORTION WITH ITS AXIS 
CURRENTLY ALONG 32N145W 20N146W. HOWEVER ITS PARENT UPPER 
CYCLONE...CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA...IS LIFTING NNE AND WILL 
SWING THIS UPPER TROUGH TO THE NE LATER TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES FROM 32N139W TO 26N142W...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO STALL AND WASH OUT FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W ON WED. 
HOWEVER A FRESH BATCH OF NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE 
DECAYING FRONT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING AHEAD OF THE 
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED N WITHIN 360 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 20N140W TO BEYOND 32N133W. 
    
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH ITS AXIS 
OVER OLD MEXICO TO THE N OF 25N ALONG 100W. BETWEEN THESE TWO 
UPPER TROUGHS...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 5N112W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ALONG 25N119W TO BEYOND 35N125W. THIS RIDGE 
WILL SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH 
DESCRIBED TODAY. BUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E LATE
WED INTO THU ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 20N. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PATTERN ALOFT... 
EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONES ARE NOTED NEAR 26N125W AND NEAR 12N132W. 
AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N126W 1029 MB 
WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N105W AND A RIDGE SW TO BEYOND 
22N140W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN RIDGES W ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL E PAC E OF 90W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N E OF 
100W.    

GAP WINDS...CURRENTLY E WINDS SURGING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 
15 KT WED BUT INCREASE AGAIN THU AT 20 TO 25 KT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS 
N OF 25N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE TEXAS WILL 
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE 
SQUEEZING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15 TO 20 KT AROUND 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE AROUND 
SUNRISE WED AND FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AROUND 
SUNRISE THU...THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI MORNING.     

$$
FORECASTER NELSON