000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252222 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 1N79W 7N110W 9N115W 5N130W 4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS FROM 79W-84W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 100W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N124W TO CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
12N131W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IN SW SEMICIRCLE OF VORTEX AND MODERATE DIFFLUENT PATTERN 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ IN ERN 
QUADRANT OF CENTER.  MOISTURE DEBRIS FROM ITCZ RIDING WEAK 50 KT 
JET INTO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO A LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISMS.  
EXCEPT S OF 10N E OF 90W...REMAINDER E PAC IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF 
CARIBBEAN MID-UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 110W.  

WEAK RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 15N140W ADVECTING MOISTURE 
INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE 
TROUGH.  TROUGH LIKELY TO BECOME WEATHER MAKER LATER BEYOND 
FORECAST PERIOD ONCE IT GETS INTO E PAC AS NEGATIVE TILT IS 
BECOMING EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1030 MB AT 35N126W HAS RIDGE EXTEND 15N110W 
BRINGING STRONG WINDS ALONG BOTH SIDES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL FORCE STRONG COLD FRONT CLOSE 
TO NW CORNER OF BASIN INCREASING SLY WINDS AND INTRODUCING 
ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS SPREADING SE THROUGH WED. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITHIN NEXT 36 
HRS AS CARIBBEAN RIDGE RETREATS E AND WEAKENS TRADE WINDS.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO BY WED 
WILL FORCE WINDS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
INTO DEVELOPING STORM.

LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE SPREADING SE FROM RECENT GALE 
EVENT ALONG NRN SECTIONS OF E PAC.  AS THEY SUBSIDE...NEW SET OF 
NW SWELLS APPROACHES FROM NEXT COLD FRONT BY WED.  

WALLY BARNES