000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251623 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 2N79W 8N110W 5N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N 
OF 4N E OF 79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 121W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N E 
OF 115W WITH MODERATE WLY WINDS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ADVECTING 
SOME MOISTURE ACROSS EXTREME NRN MEXICO. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH 
WHICH BROUGHT GALES TO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TWO DAYS AGO
AND IS STILL RESPONSIBLE FOR A LARGE SWATH OF 12 TO 18 FOOT SEAS 
OVER THE MARINE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THESE SWELLS SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT 
DIMINISH IN AMPLITUDE. 

A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 13N131W DOMINATED THE FLOW REGIME OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS W OF 110W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW S OF 
22N BETWEEN 108W AND 130W WAS AIDING IN FIRING UP WIDELY 
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 120 
TO 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W AND 121W. IN ADDITION THIS 
FLOW WAS ADVECTING MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE E 
PACIFIC TOWARD SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  

SHARP BUT NARROW UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N130W 15N140W WAS 
MOVING EWD 10-15 KT. STRONG SWLY WINDS AT THE UPPER LEVEL WERE 
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. 

SURFACE...
RIDGE DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH A 1027 MB HIGH 
NEAR 35N127W. 

GAP WINDS...
A HIGH RESOLUTION 1242 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95W. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF MODEL WAS 
THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL TO FORECAST 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE AREA. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 
TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST GALE EVENT SINCE 
THE SHORT-LIVED WEAK GALE EVENT OF 27-28 JAN. HIGHER RESOLUTION 
NWP MODELS SUGGEST WINDS MAY REACH STORM FORCE BEYOND 48 
HOURS.   

EVEN THOUGH THE QUIKSCAT/ASCAT PASSES MISSED THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO NWP MODELS SUGGEST 20 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN 
THE AREA. WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 20 KT 
OVER THE 36 HOURS. 

COBB