000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250428
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N77W 6N102W 8N113W 5N120W 6N131W 4N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 110W- 
125W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N130W TO WEAKENING CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 21N130W THEN TO 2N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED 
WITH VORTEX EXTEND TO E PAC BOUNDARIES ON S AND SW QUADRANTS.  
ON EASTERN QUADRANT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AND 
MOISTURE DEBRIS SWATH HEADING N FROM 109W-126W.  

WELL ANCHORED RIDGE OVER LAKE MARACAIBO CONTINUES DOMINATING 
AREA E OF 105W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING 
AIR MASS VERY DRY.  N OF 20N E OF 120W...RIDGE CREST IS 
FLATTENED BY FAST MOVING TROUGH ALOFT KEEPING STRONG 85-90 KT 
QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLIES.    

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAKENED COLD FRONT FROM 32N116W TO 26N120W THEN STATIONARY TO 
24N127W CARRIES LITTLE WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH IT NOW THAT 
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED.  LONG PERIOD LARGE NW SWELL...AS HIGH AS 13 
FT...SPREADING OVER E PAC N OF 6N W OF 105W.  HIGH PRES 1024 MB 
AT 29N130W BEHIND FRONT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN NW WINDS ALONG BOTH 
COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.     

WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT HAS BEGUN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER 
AS EASTERLY TRADES BUILD OVER WRN CARIBBEAN.  MOST GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST SOME WEAK NLY FLOW ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STATING 
JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES