000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242224
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 6N100W 7N117W 3N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 109W-120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N119W TO WEAKENING CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 11N127W THEN TO 4N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED 
WITH VORTEX EXTEND TO E PAC BOUNDARIES ON S AND SW QUADRANTS.  
ON EASTERN QUADRANT...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ AND 
MOISTURE DEBRIS SWATH HEADING N FROM 115W-125W.  

WELL ANCHORED RIDGE OVER LAKE MARACAIBO CONTINUES DOMINATING 
AREA E OF 105W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING 
AIR MASS VERY DRY.  N OF 20N E OF 120W...RIDGE CREST IS 
FLATTENED BY FAST MOVING TROUGH ALOFT KEEPING STRONG 80-90 KT 
QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLIES.    

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAKENED COLD FRONT FROM 32N117W TO 25N127W THEN STATIONARY TO 
22N140W CARRIES LITTLE WEATHER OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH IT NOW THAT 
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED.  LONG PERIOD LARGE NW SWELL...AS HIGH AS 20 
FT...SPREADING OVER E PAC N OF 6N W OF 105W.  HIGH PRES 1023 MB 
AT 27N130W BEHIND FRONT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN NW WINDS ALONG BOTH 
COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.     

WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT HAS BEGUN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER 
AS EASTERLY TRADES BUILD OVER WRN CARIBBEAN.  MOST GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST SOME WEAK NLY FLOW ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STATING 
JUST BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES