000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN FEB 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 5N105W 7N120W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 10N109.5W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N WITH MODERATE WLY WINDS AT THE UPPER LEVELS ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE. THIS TROUGH ONCE SUPPORTED A WEAKENING 988 MB SURFACE LOW WITH NOW GALE FORCE WINDS APPROACHING THE N CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 40N127W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N120W AND EXTENDS TO 21N140W. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT N OF THE AREA WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND ARE ONLY AROUND 20 KT N OF 29N PER A 0620 UTC ASCAT PASS. A SUBSEQUENT 0840 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF UP TO 28 FT ALONG 30N. THESE SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT DIMINISHING IN AMPLITUDE. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N137W SHOULD MOVE NE OF THE AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 11N131W DOMINATED THE FLOW REGIME OVER THE DEEP TROPICS W OF 105W. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW S OF 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W WAS AIDING IN FIRING UP SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 131W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING TO THE W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 116W. HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WWD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...CONVECTION MAY INCREASE ALONG THE TROUGH WITHIN THE CORE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NOTED EARLIER NEAR 6N115W HAS FALLEN IN A GAP IN THE 1306 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND IT IS QUESTIONABLE FOR NOW WHETHER THIS FEATURE STILL EXISTS. GAP WINDS... A HIGH RESOLUTION 1126 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT HAS BEGUN. AS STRONGER WINDS MOVE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO MAY FRESHEN UP TO 20-25 KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW TO OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON MON. THE ECMWF IS A NOTED OUTLIER IN FORECASTING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT ON MON. THEREFORE NO MENTION OF 20 KT WINDS IS INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE CONUS...A STRONG GALE EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. COBB