000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W 8N88W 6N94W 7N104W 8N110W 3N120W 1N129W 
4N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 110W TO 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS...BUT STARTING TO FILL...977 MB SURFACE LOW WITH 
STORM FORCE WINDS IS LOCATED AT 39N130W.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS OUR AREA AT 32N121W AND EXTENDS TO 
20N140W.  EARLIER GALE FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED NORTH OF THE 
FRONT IN OUR AREA...BUT A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0338 UTC 
SHOWED THAT WINDS HAD DROPPED TO AT MOST 30 KT.  WAVE HEIGHTS OF 
UP TO 28 FT FROM NW SWELL ARE LIKELY OCCURRING BEHIND THE 
FRONT.  THESE SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD 
IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT DIMINISHING IN AMPLITUDE.  THE FRONT 
SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  A 
SURFACE HIGH OF 1022 MB IS AT 24N122W SHOULD ALSO 
DISSIPATE...BEING REPLACED BY A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N128W IN 24 
HOURS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1012 MB IS OBSERVED NEAR 6N115W 
THAT SHOWED UP FAIRLY DISTINCTLY FROM THE 0205 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 
0432 UTC ASCAT PASSES.  THE LOW HAS NOT SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ 
AND WHILE IT DOES HAVE SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION...THE VERY 
STRONG SW SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY POSSIBILITY OF AN PRE-SEASON 
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KT 
AS EITHER A WEAK LOW OR OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A WEAK PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPECTED 
TO REACH GALE FORCE AND/OR PRODUCE HIGH SEAS.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW TO 
OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TOMORROW.  IT IS NOTED 
...HOWEVER...THAT THE ECMWF DOES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER 
WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT STARTING TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY.  GIVEN 
THAT THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL PREDICTING AT LEAST 20 KT OF A GAP 
WIND EVENT...THIS IS NOT YET INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST.

CHRIS LANDSEA