000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 8N84W 7N92W 8N107W 2N120W 4N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N97W 5N100W 6N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 75 NM OF 8N112W AND 7N126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST N OF THE AREA TONIGHT HAS 
GENERATED A SURFACE WINTER CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING E OVER THE NW CORNER OF OUR REGION WITH 
GALE FORCE WINDS AND NW SWELL INCREASING TO 16 FT. THE SHORTWAVE 
IS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG ZONAL WLY FLOW N OF 25N. S OF 25N A 
BROAD FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES COVERS THE REGION. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF NEAR 36N132W WITH A 
TIGHT MID LEVEL GRADIENT N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO A LINE FROM 30N130W 
TO 22N140W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE N OF 28N FROM 240 NM E 
OF THE FRONT TO W OF THE FRONT TO 140W. NW SWELL WILL INCREASE 
TO 24 FT OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA BEHIND THE 
FRONT. ELSEWHERE A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 22N122W IS DRIFTING SE. NE 
TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH NW SWELL 6 TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS 
ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE CA COAST AS 
MID LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWS ALONG 140W. A BROAD FLAT MID LEVEL 
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 125W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE NRN BORDER OF THE AREA 
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE REGION N OF 20N. VERY BIG NW 
SWELL 15 TO 25 FT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE MARINE AREA 
N OF 23N. NW SWELL OF 9 TO 12 FT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NRN 
BAJA COAST LATE DAY 2. ELSEWHERE NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME 
AT 15 KT BUT NW SWELL INCREASING OVER THE AREA. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST WILL BE LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG