000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230417
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  8N83W  7N87W  7N116W  3N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES N OF 28N W OF 120W WITH 
JET STREAM OVER 110 KT AND STILL STRONGER JET CORE...150 KT... 
ATTACHED TO STRONG SHORTWAVE NEAR 35N140W RACING NE.  SYSTEM TO 
BECOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER OVER NEXT DAY AS IT SWEEPS 
RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS N SECTION OF AREA.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT 
MOVES INTO E PAC BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER NW PORTION OF 
BASIN...BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND COLD FRONT.  SEAS TO BUILD OVER 20 
FT WITHIN 48 HOURS IN AFFECTED AREA. 

DOWNSTREAM...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OKLAHOMA BRINGS 
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO E PAC AND REACH 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 10N134W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SE OF TROUGH DOMINATE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT 
SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE ENHANCE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ FROM 126W-132W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB AT 23N124W HAS RIDGE EXTEND N OF 
10N W OF 110W.  BRISK TRADES TO WEAKEN AS RIDGE CRUMBLES UNDER 
COLD FRONT ATTACK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS PULSATE THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS AS STRONG 
WELL ANCHORED RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLC REBUILDS FORCING CARIBBEAN 
TRADES TO SPILL OVER GAP INTO E PAC.   

$$
WALLY BARNES