000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N83W 7N105W 8N117W 3N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF AXIS 126W-131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES N OF 28N W OF 102W WITH 
JET STREAM OVER 140 KT AND STILL STRONGER JET CORE ATTACHED TO 
STRONG  SHORTWAVE NEAR 37N148W.  SYSTEM TO BECOME SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER MAKER OVER NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS 
N  SECTION OF AREA.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO E PAC 
WITHIN 12-18 HOURS BRINGING GALES FORCE WINDS OVER NW PORTION OF 
BASIN. SEAS TO BUILD OVER 20 FT WITHIN 48 HOURS IN AFFECTED 
AREA. 

DOWNSTREAM...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OKLAHOMA BRINGS 
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO E PAC AND REACH 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 11N136W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS. 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SE OF TROUGH DOMINATE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT 
SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONE ENHANCE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ FROM 126W-131W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB AT 23N127W HAS RIDGE EXTEND N OF 
10N W OF 110W.  BRISK TRADES TO WEAKEN AS RIDGE CRUMBLES UNDER 
COLD FRONT ATTACK.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS PULSATE THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS AS STRONG 
WELL ANCHORED RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ATLC REBUILDS FORCING CARIBBEAN 
TRADES TO SPILL OVER GAP INTO E PAC.   

$$
WALLY BARNES