000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 7N110W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 
131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NRN PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING EWD N OF 
30N IN THE FAST FLOW. A STRONG DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL 
UPSTREAM ALONG 150W IS FORECAST TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
MAKER OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE 
NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITHIN 18-24 HOURS AND USHER IN GALES AND 
OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD 
TO 18-24 FT BY 48 HOURS OVER THE SAME AREA. 

FURTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A MID-UPPER LEVEL 
VORTMAX OVER SE TEXAS ACROSS NE MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 20N105W 
WAS MOVING EWD 20 KT. A PATCH OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. 
 
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF A CUT OFF LOW NEAR 8N137W. DIFFLUENT SWLY FLOW
AT THE UPPER LEVELS E OF THIS LOW WAS ENHANCING AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60-90 NM OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 131W. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
NEAR 16N98W TO THE EQUATOR AT 92W SEPARATED THE AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE E-CENTRAL PACIFIC FROM ANOTHER AREA 
OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC. 

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH A 1020 MB 
CENTER NEAR 23N126W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS A WEAKENING FRONTAL 
TROUGH WHICH SKIRTED THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA OFF THE NW 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 

GAP WINDS...
A 1318 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 89W. OTHER THAN 
LOCAL DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE WINDS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB