000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N77W 6N88W 8N104W 5N123W 5N129W 4N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N85W AND 10N101W. OTHER 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N105W 4N107W 5N120W 5N122W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG A LINE FROM 6N125W TO 5N129W TO 4N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TONIGHT OVER THE NRN PORTION 
OF THE AREA. ONE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING E OVER N CENTRAL 
MEXICO. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WAS BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND WILL BE A WEATHER MAKER DURING THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS 
LOCATED FROM CENTRAL CA SW TO 25N135W. WINDS TO 20 KT WERE 
EVIDENT JUST AHEAD AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT ACCORDING TO SSMI 
IMAGERY. A WEAKENED PACIFIC RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND 
IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 7N TO 18N W OF 120W. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE NWLY TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL 6 TO 
8 FT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 A STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT 
SHORTWAVE MOVING TO 145W. BROAD FLAT HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 24N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE 
COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THE PACIFIC RIDGE DRIFTS 
E WITH WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASING TO 10 KT. SLY WINDS 
WILL INCREASE N OF 27N W OF 137W WITH APPROACH OF A DEVELOPING 
GALE CENTER. LOOK FOR WINDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE 
DAY AND SEAS ALSO INCREASING. LITTLE CHANGE TO NE TRADES AND GAP 
WINDS. 

FOR DAY 2 A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MOVE E 
TO 35N134W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A DEEPENING LOW CENTER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E JUST N 
OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING EWD WITH THE LOW AND EXTEND 
FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE 
FRONT N OF 28N WITH INCREASING SEAS W OF THE FRONT BUILDING TO 
22 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E TO JUST OFF THE 
BAJA COAST THUS WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE FURTHE TO 5 
TO 10 KT BUT NW SWELL OF 6 TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE. GAP WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT. NE TRADES ALSO DECREASE TO 15 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 
16N W OF 112W.

$$
RRG