000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211624 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU FEB 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 7N86W 5N100W 5N110W 4N120W 2N131W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THIS AREA N OF ABOUT 15N WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS RUNNING EAST-WEST ALONG 23N. A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 11N138W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF THE CIRCULATION NEAR 15N128W AND EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA S OF 29N W OF 137W...AND ALSO FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 125W-138W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING SEWD INTO THE AREA AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVING E ABOUT 15 KT ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 32N130W...AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N139W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY W OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF IT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR ERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 30-48W HRS. A NEW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SLY WINDS (POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT) N OF 26N...AND SIMILAR WINDS TO ITS W WITH LARGE SEAS ( UP TO 20 FT) IN NW SWELL. A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 24N124W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N111W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W. E OF 110W... A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDS ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NE ACROSS NRN MEXICO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75 KT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 420 NM SE OF THE JET ARE STREAMING NE TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE INTO THE AREA FROM 5N110W TO 7N100W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO PRESENT N OF 9N E OF 100W. MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ADVECTING WWD IN MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PRESENTLY OCCURRING TO THE E OF 87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 96W-100W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SRN PANAMA AND NW COSTA RICA...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS GENERALLY VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. $$ AGUIRRE