000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N77W 6N100W 4N118W 5N129W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N81W TO 4N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
8N98W 11N105W AND 10N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N116W TO 5N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WAS MOVING E OVER LOWER 
BAJA AND NW MEXICO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE TROUGH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS 
WERE RISING AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 140W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS BRUSHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ALONG A 30N135W 22N139W LINE. WINDS TO 20 KT WERE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE FRONT WITH NW SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT. WEAK HIGH PRES 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 8N W OF 105W. NE TRADES 20 KT WERE EVIDENT 
S OF 16N W OF 120W WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
WERE NWLY TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. SEAS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST WERE 6 TO 8 FT ACCORDING TO SHIP REPORTS. GAP WINDS 
ARE LIGHT TONIGHT. 

LATER DAY 1 A FAIRLY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE 
SCENE N OF 22N. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO WEAKEN 
OVER WRN MEXICO AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER 
THE SW CONUS MOVES E. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT 
BRUSHING THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA MOVES TO 30N129W 22N137W 
WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS 9 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. LITTLE 
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 2 NO LETUP IN THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 25N. 
WHATS LEFT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO MOVES E. THE NEXT 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS WELL N OF THE AREA ALONG 125W WHILE THE 
NEXT ONE ENTERS THE PICTURE CLOSER TO 30N BUT W OF 140W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE 
AREA DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER SRN CA AND NW BAJA. A 
WEAK 1022 MB PACIFIC RIDGE DRIFTS E OVER THE REGION AND WILL 
MAINTAIN NE TRADES TO 20 KT S OF 18N W OF 115W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST SHOULD BE NWLY 10 TO 15 KT WITH 
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT MAINLY IN NW SWELL. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG