000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 7N87W 4N104W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE N PACIFIC WATERS AND 
NORTH AMERICA CONSISTS OF A GENERAL LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ALONG THE 
W COAST OF UNITED STATES AND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH E OF THE 
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. BECAUSE OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE...A SPLIT FLOW 
REGIME IS IN PLACE BETWEEN HAWAII AND CALIFORNIA AS PART OF THE 
FLOW TURNS N TOWARDS ALASKA TO CIRCUMVENT THE RIDGE AND THE 
OTHER PART TURNS SE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
IS MOVING EWD WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SPLIT... 
EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA SW TO 20N126W AND CONNECTED TO A CUT-OFF 
LOW CENTERED OVER NW ARIZONA/SW UTAH. A DECAYING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 27N123W TO 30N130W BUT NOW IS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
A BROKEN DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ANOTHER FRONT IS LOCATED 
JUST NW OF THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO EASE SE OF 30N140W BY 
THU AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY N OF 
25N W OF 130W THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 25N126W.

OVER MEXICO...THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TOWARDS W TEXAS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT...AND A BROAD CANOPY 
OF CIRRUS EXTENDING 600 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 20N123W TO 31N109W.

TROPICS...
A LARGE CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED DEEP IN THE TROPICS 
NEAR 10N139W AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE 
MID-LATITUDE FLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AN 80 KT JET STREAK LIES ON 
THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW BUT THE FEATURE IS NOT CAUSING ANY 
NOTICEABLE WEATHER. THE ITCZ IS QUITE LINEAR W OF 110W WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITS AXIS. FARTHER E...AN 
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 
NEAR 13N120W AND IS CAUSING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY JET 
EMANATING FROM COLOMBIA IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
WESTWARD TO NEAR 100W. THIS HAS DEEPENED THE MOISTURE 
AVAILABILITY AND PRODUCED WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS E OF 92W WITH 
ISOLATED EMBEDDED CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG 
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS 
OF SW GUATEMALA AND ARE CURRENTLY IN A DECAYING STAGE.

$$
BERG