000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 4N105W 
5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS 
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 5N FROM 112W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD MAINLY MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 135W. 
THERE IS AN AREA OF MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FEATURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME 
NORTHWEST MEXICO. OTHERWISE THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. UPPER CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA WEST 
OF 132W NORTH OF 30N AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH 
FEATURE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

A NARROW MAINLY UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 13N140W. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A 
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N138W. EAST OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS TO A LINE FROM 25N95W 22N106W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST BUT THERE ARE FEW CLOUDS 
IN THE AREA AND THE ITCZ CONVECTION THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN 
ENHANCE HAS DECREASED TO ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

EAST OF A LINE FROM 15N90W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 105W THE AREA IS 
MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  NORTH AND WEST OF THIS 
AREA TO THE LINE 25N95W 22N106W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W THE AREA 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
A DYING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ALONG THE LINE 32N120W 29N125W 28N136W 
24N140W. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 115W. 
REMAINDER IF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.

HIGH PRES RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY 
WINDS TO FLOW THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$
LL