000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG...5N77W  3N85W  7N130W 
6N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 83W TO 91W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N122W TO CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 9N139W.  ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST N OF AREA 
MOVING NE DROPPING UPPER SUPPORT OF WEAKENING STATIONARY COLD 
FRONT UNDER IT.  FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN 24 HRS 
BUT USHER IN ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS 12 FT EVENTUALLY 
SPREADING AS FAR S AS 8N W OF 120W BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
JET CORE OF 120 KT ADVECTS SWATH OF TRPCL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
DEBRIS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NRN MEXICO.

DOWNSTREAM...REINFORCED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE 
OVER VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA BORDER REMAINS AN UNMOVABLE BLOCK TO 
CONTEND WITH...NOT PERMITTING TROUGH ANY FURTHER EWD INTRUSION.
TRPCL MOISTURE OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA ROUNDS WRN PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE E OF 97W.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK 1022 MB HIGH PRES AT 26N127W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 10N105W.
BRISK TRADES FROM 8N-16N W OF 130W REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 48 HRS
...BUT LARGE SWELLS FROM LOW PRES WELL N OF AREA SPREAD THROUGH 
E PAC REACHING 8N W OF 120W. 

HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDING OVER WRN CARIBBEAN FORCE WINDS TO  
SPILL INTO E PAC THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP THROUGH PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES