000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 6N102W 
5N120W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180-240 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 
83W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
RATHER NARROW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SHEARED 
VORTMAX NEAR 27N119W THROUGH 16N130W TO AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
CENTER NEAR 8N139W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST N OF THE AREA 
ALONG 129W WAS SWEEPING EWD AT 20 KT. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTED A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH EXTENDS FROM 30N125.5W 
TO A DISSIPATING 1019 MB LOW NEAR 28N138W THEN CONTINUES AS A 
COLD FRONT TO 25N140W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BUT USHER IN ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS 
OF 9 TO 12 FT TRAVERSING THE NW PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA IN 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

THE EXTENSION OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE W OF THE AREA IS 
BUILDING EWD OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N 
AND W OF 130W WITH MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS 
WAKE.  

FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOTED N OF 20N ALONG 100W. 
AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE NARROW TROUGH GENERALLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 
135W. THIS FLOW WAS ENHANCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THE FLAT RIDGE AXIS WAS CONNECTED TO 
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN/N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W 
AND IS EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE FLOW OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 108W WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SE FLOW 
MAINTAINING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 2N TO 6N 
BETWEEN 83W AND 87W WITH A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUD DEBRIS FANNING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN. 

SURFACE...
EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL COMPLEX NOTED ABOVE...WEAK 1022 
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N126W DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 
10N AND W OF 105W.   

GAP WINDS...
THE QUICK BURST OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NOTED 
EARLIER HAVE ENDED PER THE 0026 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 
MORE WESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT. HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDING OVER 
WRN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE WINDS SPILLING INTO E PAC THROUGH 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 20 KT WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUING INTO THU. 

$$
COBB