000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...2N78W 5N105W 
6N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS FROM 125W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
RATHER NARROW MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 26N122W THROUGH 17N130W TO ANOTHER ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9N140W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST N 
OF THE AREA ALONG 132W WAS SWEEPING EWD AT 20 KT. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTED A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH EXTENDS 
FROM 30N126W TO A DISSIPATING 1018 MB LOW NEAR 27N140W. THIS 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BUT 
USHER IN ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT TRAVERSING 
THE NW PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

THE EXTENSION OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE W OF THE AREA IS 
BUILDING EWD OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N 
AND W OF 130W WITH MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS 
WAKE.  

FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOTED N OF 20N ALONG 100W. 
AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW EXISTS BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE NARROW TROUGH GENERALLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 
135W. THIS FLOW WAS ENHANCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 126W AND 135W. THE FLAT RIDGE AXIS WAS CONNECTED TO 
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN/N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W 
AND IS EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ON THE FLOW OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 108W WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SE FLOW 
MAINTAINING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 3N ACROSS THE 
ITCZ TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 88W 
WITH A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FANNING NWD 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN. 

SURFACE...
EXCEPT FOR THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT NOTED ABOVE...WEAK 
1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 26N123W DOMINATED THE AREA N 
OF 12N AND W OF 110W.   

GAP WINDS...
A 1528 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A QUICK BURST OF 20 KT WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRES RIDGE REBUILDING OVER WRN CARIBBEAN 
WILL INCREASE WINDS SPILLING INTO E PAC THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WITH 20 KT WINDS BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO 
THU. 

$$
COBB