000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE...8N82W 11N97W 5N106W 7N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 128W...AND 
FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 83W AND 
87W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
NARROW FRACTURED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SRN 
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER SWD TO 27N124W. ANOTHER PIECE OF THE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SHEARED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N130W 
SWWD THROUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 14N139W 
TO A BASE NEAR 6N142W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
15N140W.  

ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLIDING OVER THE TOP OF A 
VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WELL W OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 34N134W 
SWWD TO 29N140W. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING MINIMAL SUPPORT FOR A 
COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N137W 28N140W. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE N PORTION OF 
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AND AS SUCH THE 
CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE WITHIN 24 
HOURS. IN ANY EVENT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN ANOTHER 
SWELL TRAIN WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT TRAVERSING THE NW PORTION OF 
THE MARINE AREA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N THROUGH 32N ALONG 
108W/109W. AN AREA OF DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW EXISTS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FRACTURED TROUGH GENERALLY S OF 22N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 132W. THIS FLOW WAS ENHANCING SOME DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W AND 128W. 

BROAD MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 100W IS CONNECTED 
TO A SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 
7N108W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W 
OF THE SHEAR AXIS S OF 20N. LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE S 
CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCING THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 
105W WITH DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SE FLOW MAINTAINING SOME WIDELY 
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 2N ACROSS THE ITCZ TO THE COAST OF 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 82W AND 87W WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FANNING NWD ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.  

SURFACE...
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...A 
WEAK RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N126W DOMINATES THE 
AREA N OF 10N W OF 109W. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
REGION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

$$
COBB