000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 13N87W 5N110W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE S 
OF 8N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W...AND WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N128W TO A 
MID TO UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 17N141W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS 
E OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONE CENTER TO 120W ARE ADVECTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH HAS INDUCED A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DIFFUSE 1018 MB SFC LOW NEAR 28N135W 
TO 19N140W AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER 1432 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION 
QUIKSCAT PASS. A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED 
NEAR THE TROUGH EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
IS ALSO ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 120-180 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 135W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE WAS 
ADVECTED NWD TO 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W.    

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS 
EXTENDS S INTO DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N98W TO 20N101W AND
CONNECTED TO A TROUGH IN THE TROPICS SWD TO NEAR 6N107W. STRONG 
DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...CENTRAL MEXICO AND MOST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SEPARATES THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM THE 
UPPER TROUGH FURTHER W DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE PARENT ANTICYCLONE 
IS ESTIMATED NEAR 6S134W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWD ALONG 
6N120W 32N120W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 3N67W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND W CARIBBEAN. 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 
100W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED S OF 8N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W 
WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWD ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S FLORIDA. 

GAP WINDS...20 KT NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 
20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER THE 2338 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. 
HOWEVER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP TO 20 KT AGAIN BY LATE TUE 
AS AN AREA OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
SHIFTS WWD TO ALONG 80W. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO 
TUE. 

$$
COBB