000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 8N100W 5N117W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG S OF 10N E OF 91W AND 
WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 135W.

SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 35N131W IS LIFTING WELL NE OF 
THE AREA. ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO ANOTHER MID TO UPPER 
CYCLONE NEAR 17N141W. STRONG SWLY WINDS ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH
AND CYCLONE CENTERS TO 120W IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
NWD INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W AND WRAPPING 
SOME OF THE MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTHERN CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE SOUTHERN CYCLONE HAS INDUCED A SURFACE 
TROUGH NOTED IN THE 1432 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG 17N140W 
24N135W. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGESTS THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY 
EXTEND FURTHER NE TO NEAR 26N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N140W. AREA OF 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AND 
WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 135W. RESULTANT 
DEBRIS MOISTURE WAS ADVECTED NWD INTO A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE 
NOTED ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.    

A FAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS 
EXTENDS S INTO DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N100W TO 20N102W 
CONNECTING TO A TROUGH IN THE TROPICS SWD TO NEAR 6N108W. STRONG 
DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SEPARATES THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM THE 
UPPER TROUGH FURTHER W DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE PARENT ANTICYCLONE 
IS ESTIMATED NEAR 6S134W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NE ALONG 6N120W 
32N120W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 3N67W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND W CARIBBEAN. 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
E OF 100W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED S OF 10N E OF 91W WITH 
THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. 

GAP WINDS...20 KT NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT. NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY MON THEN INCREASE 
AGAIN ON TUE AS AN AREA OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SHIFTS W TO ALONG 80W. NLY WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED 
TO BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON AND 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SPREADING S OVER THE WATERS N OF 13N 
BETWEEN 94W-97W BY EARLY TUE.     

$$
COBB