000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 8N84W 6N90W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED S OF 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W AND 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 8N123W 5N131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 33N133W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 
ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N141W. UPPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE NORTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 138W 
AND 130W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE SOUTHERN CYCLONE HAS INDUCED 
A SURFACE TROUGH WELL DEPICTED BY TODAYS 0325 UTC QUICK SCAT 
PASS ALONG 20N137W 10N141W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 17N136W 
16N142W AND WITHIN 60 NM 10.5N143W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
THIS CONVECTION SPREADS NE CONCENTRATING IN A BAND 210 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE FROM 21N136W TO BEYOND 33N125W. 

A MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDS S INTO 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N101W 20N101W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
6N110W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 
113W AND 90W...AND CONTINUES ALONG A 600 NM WIDE BAND WITH AXIS 
FROM 24N97W TO 9N114W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SEPARATES THIS UPPER 
TROUGH FROM THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER W DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE 
PARENT ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 6S144W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS 
NE ALONG 5N125W 34N124W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ALONG LINE 8N123W 5N131W...WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ADVECTED N INTO A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE NOTED 
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 135W AND 120W.     

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 3N63W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING W INTO THE AREA TO A CREST ALONG 9N106W 20N97W 
27N82W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED S OF 10N E OF 93W BUT THE 
RESULTANT UPPER MOISTURE IS REMAINING IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. 
HOWEVER A NARROW UPPER MOISTURE PLUME...FROM PREVIOUS 
CONVECTION...IS NOTED ALONG 10N100W 20N91W 26N82W THEN 
EVAPORATES.

GAP WINDS...20 KT NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT. NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY MON THEN INCREASE 
AGAIN ON TUE AS AN AREA OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SHIFTS W TO ALONG 80W. NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 KT MON NIGHT 
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SPREADING S OVER THE WATERS N OF 
13N BETWEEN 94W-97W BY NOON ON TUE.     

$$
NELSON