000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N78W 9N84W 5N92W 6N109W 6N116W 6N126W 4N134W 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
1N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE ALONG A LINE 
FROM 5N107W TO 6N110W TO 2N120W. 

OTHER MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 16N135W 17N135W AND 
18N137W.

...DISCUSSION

A DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 30N135W WAS MOVING NE 10 
TO 15 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT 
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE REGION NW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE CONUS. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A 1026 MB CENTER 
NEAR 31N131W COVERS THE AREA N OF 8N W OF 105W. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT S OF 20N W OF 115W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE NWLY TO 20 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 9 FT. WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE ALSO NW TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. GAP 
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR PAPAGAYO WHERE SSMI IMAGERY 
SHOWS 15 TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 A SECOND MID LEVEL LOW CENTER JUST W OF THE REGION 
NEAR 20N144W WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA. A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A 1025 MB HIGH WILL ANCHOR THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE NEAR 30N130W. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL WINDS N OF 
10N W OF 110W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN NWLY 15 KT WITH 
NW SWELL TO 9 FT. GAP WINDS DECREASE THROUGH PAPAGAYO AS HIGH 
PRES OVER THE CARIB MOVES EWD.

FOR DAY 2 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE 
WRN PORTION OF THE AREA OPENING UP TO A WAVE AS IT MOVES TO 
140W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WITH WESTERLIES STRENGTHENING 
N OF 25N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTER WEAKENS 
TO 1023 MB AND DRIFTS SE TO NEAR 28N128W. LITTLE CHANGE TO NE 
TRADES S OF 20N BUT WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE TO 5 TO 
10 KT. NW SWELL ALONG THE BAJA COAST ALSO DECREASES SLIGHTLY TO 
6 TO 8 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG