000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 9N84W 5N102W 7N125W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...AND 
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W.  

...DISCUSSION
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORTEX NEAR 29N136W IS NOW SLOWLY MOVING 
TO THE ENE AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE W 
OF THE AREA ALONG 144W WAS DIGGING SWD TO 11/12N. THIS TROUGH 
IS BEGINNING TO KICK THE UPPER LOW OUT TO THE NE. THE UPPER LOW 
SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. A BROAD 
SWATH OF 60-90 KT SWLY WINDS COVERED THE AREA BETWEEN  THE 
TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE CREST OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGE 
ALONG 118W. DIFLUENT SWLY FLOW WAS ENHANCING A CLUSTER OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WELL N OF THE ITCZ FROM 
13N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 138W AND WAS ALSO ADVECTING DEEP 
TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE ITCZ WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE 
TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

DOWNSTREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WAS LIFTING NWD ACROSS 
N-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO 20N 
ALONG 103W. THE TROUGH WAS MOVING E 15-20 KT. VERY STRONG DEEP 
LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
MAINLY OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS OVER COLOMBIA WITH ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA ALONG 80W. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W. 
DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SE FLOW WAS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W AND 
90W AND ADVECTING MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD OVER 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. 

...SURFACE AND GAP WINDS
1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER JUST N OF THE NEAR 33N132W WITH RIDGE N 
OF 12N W OF 105W DOMINATED MOST OF THE E PACIFIC. SUB-NORMAL 
TRADES BARELY REACH 20 KT OVER A CONFINED AREA FROM 10N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 0004 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED 
20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IN THE VICINITY OF 
CABO CORRIENTES. WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS WHILE THE WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE 
ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS LARGE NW SWELLS W OF 110W 
EXTENDING AS FAR S AS 8N SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.        

$$
COBB