000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 8N84W 5N104W 6N122W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W AND 
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
113W AND 131W. 

...DISCUSSION
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORTEX NEAR 29N137W REMAINED NEARLY 
STATIONARY. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE W OF THE AREA 
ALONG 145W WAS DIGGING SWD TO 12N. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
KICK THE UPPER LOW OUT TO THE NE WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.   
A BROAD SWATH OF 60-90 KT SWLY WINDS COVERED THE AREA BETWEEN  
THE TROUGH/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE CREST OF DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE ALONG 119W. SWLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NEWD FROM THE ITCZ WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE 
UPPER LOW.  

DOWNSTREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTEX SWEEPING ACROSS SW TEXAS 
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO 20N ALONG 105W WAS 
MOVING E 15-20 KT. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WAS 
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAINLY OVER N-CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. 
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS OVER COLOMBIA WITH 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FLORIDA ALONG 
80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 
100W. DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL SE FLOW WAS MAINTAINING SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 90W AND
ADVECTING MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD OVER THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. 

...SURFACE AND GAP WINDS
1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 28N122W WITH RIDGE N OF 10N W OF 
105W DOMINATED MOST OF THE E PACIFIC. SUB-NORMAL TRADES BARELY 
REACH 20 KT OVER A CONFINED AREA FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 130W. 
1318 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 1630 UTC ASCAT PASSES CONFIRM 20 KT WINDS 
STILL OCCURRING IN THE GULFS OF CALIFORNIA AND PAPAGAYO. BOTH 
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 26-48 
HOURS. OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS LARGE NW SWELLS W OF 110W 
EXTENDING AS FAR S AS 8N SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.        

$$
COBB