000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 4N97W 7N119W 4N130W 7N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 120W.

...DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX 29N138W HAS LARGE FIELD OF 60-70 KT
WIND ON SE QUADRANT ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO CREST OF DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE CREST ALONG 120W.  SECOND VORTEX WELL NE OF BASIN HAS 
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIG S ALONG 108W TO 10N.  MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH AXIS DRYING AIR MASS 
ALOFT.  DRY AREA EXTENDS NE INTO NRN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO.  

DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERS 
REMAINING E PAC WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING IT TO SRN HALF OF GULF 
OF MEXICO...SRN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA.

...AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB AT 28N124W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
12N105W HAS TOTAL CONTROL OF E PAC.  WEAK TRADES BARELY REACH 20 
KT AND ONLY MECHANICAL WIND FUNNELING ENHANCES WINDS ABOVE THAT 
THRESHOLD IN GULFS OF CALIFORNIA AND PAPAGAYO.  BOTH ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIE WITHIN 48 HRS.  OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS LARGE 
NW SWELLS W OF 110W EXTENDING AS FAR S AS 8N SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 
10 FT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.        

$$
WALLY BARNES