000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N79W 8N83W 3N96W 7N120W 4N127W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 5N78W TO 5N88W TO 4N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
6N102W 2N103W AND ALONG A LINE FROM 8N110W TO 9N115W TO 7N120W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG NEAR 13N132W.

...DISCUSSION

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES CENTER OVER SE AZ TONIGHT DRIFTING E. A 
WEAKER BUT IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 27N139W MOVING 
ESE 10 KT. IN BETWEEN THE TWO A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 15N115W NW TO 30N125W AND BEYOND. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
DYING COLD FRONT IS OVER SRN BAJA MOVING SE AND WILL DISSIPATE 
LATER TODAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N132W EXTENDS SE TO 13N113W. AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS OVER THE 
EXTREME W PORTION ALONG 138W AND WAS A RESULT OF THE MID LEVEL 
LOW CENTER OVER THAT AREA. THE TROUGH AND RIDGE ARE PRODUCING NE 
AND E TRADES TO 20 KT FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 125W WITH SEAS 8 TO 
11 FT WITH NW SWELL. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY NWLY 
15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY WITH NW SWELL 9 TO 11 FT. 
THE ONLY GAP WINDS OF CONSEQUENCE ARE IN THE PAPAGAYO AREA WHERE 
SSMI SHOWS 15 TO 20 KT. OTHER GAP AREAS HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD AFFECTING NRN 
MEXICO. A STRONG NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER BAJA AND 
NW MEXICO. A SUBTROPIC JET WILL CONTINUE FROM NEAR 12N140W NE TO 
24N124W THEN E ACROSS SRN BAJA. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT WEAKENS. NWLY SWELL OF 9 TO 11 FT WILL CONTINUE ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS WITH PAPAGAYO 
CONTINUING TO HAVE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

FOR DAY 2 THE TWO MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL EXIT THE REGION AND 
MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO 
ALONG 120W. ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO NEAR 
18N145W THEN MOVE NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 1025 MB HIGH CENTER 
WILL ANCHOR THE PACIFIC RIDGE NEAR 30N130W. THE RIDGE WILL 
PRODUCE NE TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 115W WITH 
SEAS 9 TO 11 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL BE MOSTLY NLY 
10 TO 15 KT WITH NW SWELL TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH 
PAPAGAYO TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.

$$
RRG