000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160339 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT FEB 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N77W 4N90W 2N100W 5N117W 11N131W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 3N94W 6N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N136W 15N133W. ...DISCUSSION A VIGOROUS...DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 32N110W SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING DOWN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD PRESS INLAND OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIP DATA AND A 0105 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT EXTENDING FROM IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N AND EAST OF 120W. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT NORTH OF 30N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE RELAXING ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FETCH AREA IS NOT THAT WIDE AND THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD TO NEARLY 8 FT SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA TIP EARLY SUNDAY. FARTHER WEST...LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL RELATED TO THE INTENSE 940MB CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO ARRIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 15 FT IN NW SWELL HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 132W. AS THIS SWELL GROUP CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO SHARPLY BUILD SATURDAY OVER ALL AREAS WEST OF 110W...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT OVER ALL AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 22N112W 8N140W BY LATE SATURDAY. AS WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE OVER THESE AREAS SUNDAY...THE SWELL SHOULD BE ARRIVING OVER AREAS SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO SUNDAY. WAVE HEIGHT SHOULD FURTHER SUBSIDE GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE...AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 20N137 10N140W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 26N138W SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1028MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N134W SHOULD KEEP WEAK TO MODERATE TRADES IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W. LARGE-SCALE DIVERGENCE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION IN A NARROW REGION BETWEEN 12N AND 16N AND BETWEEN 131W AND 139W. CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THE LAST FEW DAYS IS CAUSING GAP WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SEAS POSSIBLY TO 8 FT. ALTHOUGH MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. $$ KIMBERLAIN