000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152203 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI FEB 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N85W 4N95W 5N120W 11N132W 9N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 10N109W TO 7N121W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 13N138W TO 15N131W. ...DISCUSSION A VIGOROUS AND DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 32N114W SHOULD MOVE EAST ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER TONIGHT AND SAT BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUN. IN RESPONSE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PRESS INLAND OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. SHIP DATA AND AN OLDER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE A BRISK NW TO N FLOW OF 20 TO OCCASIONALLY 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY BEFORE RELAXING. ALTHOUGH THE FETCH AREA IS SMALL AND THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT...WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS INCREASE IS MORE RELATED TO THE INTENSE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK. A WELL-DEFINED LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL FROM THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 15 FT NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 130W. EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT TO BUILD INTO WATERS N OF 20N AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SUNDAY...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 FT EVEN PRESSING AS FAR SOUTH AS 10N125W. AFTER OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE BASIN...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SWELLS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING BY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N134W SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING WEAK TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WEST OF 110W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS STATED ABOVE...THIS REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD...NWLY SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS CAUSING GAP WINDS OF 20 THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHICH CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN DIMINISH FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD LOCALLY REACH 8 FT OVER THIS AREA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. $$ KIMBERLAIN