000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N84W 4N95W 5N120W 110N133W 9N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 N OF AXIS FROM 114W TO 124W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 133W TO 136W.

...DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 29N137W HAS WEAK TROUGH EXTEND TO 
21N140W.  WEAKENING 95 KT JTST...WAS 115 KT YESTERDAY...NOW 
BRINGS MUCH LESS MOISTURE INTO E PAC N OF 21N W OF 126W.  WINDS 
ALOFT DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST 
ALONG 126W WITH MINOR SUBSIDENCE DRYING AIR MASS.  MOISTURE SOON 
RECOVERED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 35N112W WITH TROUGH TO 11N108W BRINGS HIGH 
LATITUDE AIR MASS INTO NERN CORNER OF E PAC.  SURFACE LOW PRES 
1008 MB AT 32N110W...INLAND CONUS...COMBINES WITH 1028 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTER AT 38N134W TO PRODUCE STRONG NLY WINDS N OF 30N AND 
LARGE SWELLS...BY NOW SUBSIDING TO 13 FT...INTO E PAC N OF 23N.
LESSER SWELLS REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 6N LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
   
ELSEWHERE...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRES 1010 MB DEVELOPS W OF COSTA 
RICA AND WRN CARIBBEAN WINDS CONTINUE PUSHED BY ATLC HIGH PRES.
GFS STRENGTHENS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WITH INCREASE IN NLY 
WINDS SPILLING INTO GULF OF PANAMA.  FORECAST BRINGS THE LATTER 
WINDS INTO E PAC WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE AS NO RELIABLE 
OBSERVATION HAS BEEN RECEIVED...BUT IS HINTED.

$$
WALLY BARNES