000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 5N77W 5N117W 10N133W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 4N79W 6N81W 1N81W 6N83W 6N88W 2N92W 6N102W 
9N123W AND 10N137W.

...DISCUSSION

STRONG UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR 31N116.5W MOVING SE WITH SUBTROPIC 
JET ON S SIDE CROSSING CENTRAL BAJA THEN ACROSS NW MEXICO. A 
WEAKER MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21N141W MOVING 
E 15 KT. ANOTHER SUBTROPIC JET EXTENDS FROM 10N140W NE TO 
22N118W WHERE IT JOINS THE FIRST JET SEGMENT. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT NW WINDS TO 20 KT WERE ALONG THE NRN BAJA COAST WITH NW 
SWELL TO 12 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH LITTLE 
SUPPORT ALOFT. THUS NE TRADES ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. GAP 
WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA 
WHERE SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NW MEXICO 
WHILE THE MUCH WEAKER COUSIN MOVES TO 25N135W. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 WITH SURFACE LOW PRES INLAND OVER NW MEXICO AND A 
WEAK PACIFIC RIDGE OFFSHORE..NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL AFFECT 
THE NRN BAJA COAST WITH SWELL TO 12 FT. NE TRADES REMAIN LIGHT 
TO MODERATE THOUGH THE GFS MODEL SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT BETWEEN 
12N AND 15N W OF 130W DUE TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES. GAP WINDS 
REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE TWO AREAS MENTIONED. N TO NE WINDS 
TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. 

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW TX WITH A FAIRLY 
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW OVER BAJA AND NW MEXICO. THE WEAKER MID 
LEVEL LOW CENTER CONTINUES MOVING NE TO NEAR 30N134W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST DECREASE TO 10 KT AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM 
32N130W SE TO 10N112W. STRONGEST NE TRADES WILL LIE BETWEEN 10N 
AND 20N FROM 110W TO 130W WITH SPEEDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT. GAP WINDS RELAX THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 15 TO 20 KT WHILE 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PANAMA REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG