000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 7N107W 5N115W 9N135W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N TO 7N E OF 84W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY S DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN METSAT DATA NEAR SAN DIEGO. 
STRONG N WINDS ALONG THE SRN CA COAST ARE GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...
UP TO 22 FT. SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA 
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SWELL PROPAGATION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE NW OF THE 
AREA WEAKLY EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. TRADES ARE STRONGEST N OF 24N W 
OF 127W. QUIKSCAT SHOWS GAP WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND PEAK PAPAGAYO WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT FRI AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NLY WINDS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SAT E OF 82W IN 
RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. 
GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL FAVORING CYCLOGENESIS AT THIS TIME.

$$
MUNDELL