000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 3N78W 7N103W 5N113W 8N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W 2N80W 2N82W 2N84W 5N101W AND 
9N104W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 7N78W AND 7N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
NEAR 6N115W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 9N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS BARRELING DOWN THE W COAST ALONG 115W 
LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS S OF 30N E OF 120W. AN ELONGATED MID 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 30N125W TO 22N140W WHERE A CLOSED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A NLY 
SURGE IS HEADED S ALONG THE CA COAST INTO OUR REGION S OF 30N E 
OF 130W. NLY WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20 KT AND NLY SWELL 
INCREASING 9 TO 12 FT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS NW OF THE AREA AND 
ONLY WEAKLY EXTENDS OVER THE REGION W OF 110W N OF 10N THUS NE 
TRADES ARE STRONGEST N OF 24N W OF 127W WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT AND SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. GAP WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EVIDENT IN SSMI 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PAPAGAYO WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS N OF 26N E OF 120W 
AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO SRN CA. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CLOSES OFF WITH A CENTER NEAR 25N137W. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE NLY SURGE RELAXES N OF 27N E OF 120W TO 
15 KT BUT NLY SWELL OF 11 TO 13 FT WILL CONTINUE. NE TRADES TO 
20 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF 15N W OF 130W WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. GAP 
WINDS INCREASE THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 25 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. TEHUANTEPEC WINDS N TO NE TO 20 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER SRN 
AZ AND NW MEXICO AND BEGIN TURNING SE AND E. THE WEAKER COUSIN 
CLOSED LOW REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 27N137W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND NE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO 
BE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST WILL BE 15 KT 
WITH NLY SWELL TO 9 FT. WINDS THROUGH PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE 
QUITE GUSTY TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. POSSIBLE GUSTY NLY WINDS 
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 20 KT WHILE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS SHOULD 
REMAIN LIGHT.

$$
RRG