000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...3N77W 6N110W 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 4N87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 5N TO 8N 
FROM 100W TO 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO EAST OF 105W.  THE AREA IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL 
MOVE EAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PART HAS ELONGATED AND IS NOW A TROUGH NORTHWEST OF A 
LINE ALONG 30N FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 30N125W TO 18N140W. THERE 
IS NOT MUCH WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY LOW 
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART THROUGH 48 HOURS.

THE LOWER LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 10N FROM 102W TO 112W 
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND SOME EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION IN THE AREA FROM 5N TO 13N FROM 98W TO 108W. THIS 
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST AND WEAKEN.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS 
EXPECTED TO INITIATE A SHORT-LIVED GAP EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALES AT THE BEGINNING 
OF THE EVENT...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO 
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING. HENCE...THE FORECAST CALLS 
FOR WINDS 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL ONLY 
LAST ABOUT 18 HOURS AND WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU 
EVENING. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAK AT THE 
MOMENT...OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20 KT...BUT THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD FARTHER W OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS.

$$
LL