000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 4N88W 6N104W 4N110W 
7N122W 7N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 130W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO EAST OF A LINE 32N109W 22N107W 
TO BEYOND 24N98W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 
HOURS.

THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PART HAS ELONGATED AND IS NOW A TROUGH NORTHWEST OF A 
LINE 32N116W 25N134W 18N140W.  THERE IS NOT MUCH WEATHER 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 
THE NORTHWEST PART THROUGH 48 HOURS.

THE LOWER LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 10N FROM 105W TO 115W 
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND SOME EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION IN THE AREA FROM 5N TO 13N FROM 95W TO 109W. THIS 
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST AND WEAKEN.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 115W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS 
EXPECTED TO INITIATE A SHORT-LIVED GAP EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALES AT THE BEGINNING 
OF THE EVENT...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO 
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING. HENCE...THE FORECAST CALLS 
FOR WINDS 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL ONLY 
LAST ABOUT 18 HOURS AND WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU 
EVENING. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE WEAK AT THE 
MOMENT...OCCASIONALLY REACHING 20 KT...BUT THESE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD FARTHER W OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS.

$$
LL