000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 6N97W 4N112W 6N125W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE AXIS E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 120 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

QUASI-STATIONARY ELONGATED DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N136W AND MAY BE BEGINNING TO DRIFT WWD. 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 130W WITH SOME 
DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ITSELF.  
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 
WSWWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND EXTREME NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WAS 
SWEEPING EWD 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED BETWEEN 
THE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM 15N115W NWWD THROUGH 32N120W AND WAS 
SHIFTING E 10-15 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND N OF 26N WAS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF 
MAINLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS GENERALLY N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE WRN 
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 94W AND EXTENDS SWD TO A BASE IN THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF 
THE TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
E OF 100W.  

A BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER TROUGH 
IS ALONG 10N W OF 120W. LOCALIZED UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
TROUGH WAS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 96W AND 111W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE AREA S OF 10N IS 
COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...
0008 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED GAP WINDS OF 20 
KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REMAIN AT THOSE SAME SPEEDS THROUGH 
48 HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE WIND 
SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  

A RATHER WEAK COLD SURGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO 
TRIGGER A SHORT LIVED...18-24 HOUR GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY 24 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
GALE FORCE AND PEAK AROUND 30 KT.   

$$
COBB