000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N77W 6N95W 5N100W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N135W IS MOVING E 
5-10 KT. ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS N OF 21N W OF 128W WITH SOME DRY AIR 
WRAPPING AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE REX BLOCK PATTERN 
ALONG THE WEST COAST IS BREAKING DOWN AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE SW CONUS. DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING 
AN AREA OF DENSE CIRRUS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY N OF 
27N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W. OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO NEAR 11N97W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH S OF 16N. 
LOCALIZED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. THE AREA S OF 10N IS UNDER 
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 110W. GAP WINDS CONTINUE 
AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.

$$
MUNDELL