000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...3N77W 5N100W 7N120W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 
105W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N136W AND 
MOVING E 5-10 KT. ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 
21N W OF 128W WITH SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WSWWD 
THROUGH NW MEXICO AND EXTREME NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WAS 
SWEEPING SWD 15-20 KT. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WAS 
LOCATED BETWEEN THE TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM 10N113W NWWD THROUGH 
32N125W AND WAS SHIFTING E 10-15 KT. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND N OF 26N WAS 
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED 
RAIN AND ISOLATED CONVECTION GENERALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 
132W. OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

FURTHER S...AN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 93W AND BECOMES FRACTURED ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO A BASE NEAR 10N103W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH GENERALLY S OF 
16N. 

A BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER TROUGH 
IS ALONG 10N W OF 120W. LOCALIZED UPPER DIFFLUENCE WAS 
MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W 
AND 123W. THE AREA S OF 10N IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW. 

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 14N WEST OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...
0036 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED GAP WINDS OF 
20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND A HINT OF 20 KT WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN 
36 HOURS. 

$$
COBB