000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...3N77W 4N105W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 10N125W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 
10.5N136W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER TROUGH IS SOUTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 115W AND NORTH OF A 
LINE 14N115W 13N102W TO ACROSS THE ISTMO DE TEHUANTEPEC. THIS 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N137W. THE 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N131W 23N135W 
21N140W. MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN AND SOME 
CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF 
THE TROUGH WITHIN THE AREA NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 127W TO 132W AND 
ALSO N OF 29N FROM 132W TO 138W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 10N WEST OF 120W. A COUPLE OF 
AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH AREAS 
OF CONVECTION ALTHOUGH NORTH OF THE ITCZ ARE MENTIONED IN THAT 
SECTION. THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE 
REGION. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND IN 24 HOURS BE 
ALONG 10N FROM 110W TO 130W AND IN 48 HOURS BE ALONG 10N FROM 
95W TO 115W WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. CONVECTION WILL MOST 
LIKELY FOLLOW THE FEATURE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS NOTED NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 118W.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF 107W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
HIS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS IN PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA ARE ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT BUT 
ARE WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 
20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BY TUE AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN 
NEAR 20 KT OVER PAPAGAYO THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS.

$$
LL