000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...2N78W 6N90W 3N104W 8N130W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 9N TO 13N 
W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER TROUGH IS SOUTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 118W AND NORTH OF A 
LINE 14N118W 13N110W 15N101W TO 20N97W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. CONVECTION IS BEING 
ENHANCED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
EAST AND WEAKEN.

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N138W. THE 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N134W 23N135W 
20N140W. MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED RAIN AND SOME 
CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION AND EAST OF 
THE TROUGH WITHIN THE AREA NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 126W TO 134W AND 
ALSO N OF 29N FROM 134W TO 139W.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 10N WEST OF 120W. A COUPLE OF 
AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE AREA 
IS THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. ANOTHER AREA IS 
FROM 8N TO 22N FROM 124W TO 130W. THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY 
DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS NOTED NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
HIS ANALYZED.

ALL THREE GAP WIND AREAS...TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA 
ARE ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT BUT HAVE PROBABLY REACHED THEIR PEAK 
AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 20 KT 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PANAMA BY TUE AFTERNOON BUT  
WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LL