000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N78W 6N90W 3N104W 8N130W 9N140W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 83W AND BETWEEN 
95W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-13N W OF 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES 
TO FOSTER A PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA AND A 
BLOCKING RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...AND LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...A FEW SHORTWAVE ARE AFFECTING THE 
SUBTROPICAL WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STAGNANT FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 
29N138W AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS CENTER AND EXTENDING 
WELL TO ITS SE. THE SUBTROPICAL JET BORDERS THE SE PERIPHERY OF 
THE UPPER LOW WITH MAXIMUM CORE SPEEDS OF 65 KT...AND ASSOCIATED 
DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP-LAYERED CLOUDINESS 
AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 8N-26N W OF 123W. THERE IS A 
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF THE UPPER 
LOW...AND THIS IN TURN HAS DIMINISHED THE INTENSITY OF THE 
TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL AREAS.

FARTHER E...A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 102W 
IS PUSHING E ACROSS MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT WATERS SW OF 
ACAPULCO. DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AXIS IS PRODUCING 
INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT IN ITS 
WAKE IT IS LEAVING DRYING SUBSIDENCE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
ALONG AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS PLENTY OF 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S OF ABOUT 8N BUT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 102W 
MAINLY DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN GAP WINDS. ALL THREE...TEHUANTEPEC... 
PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA ARE ACTIVE AT THE MOMENT BUT HAVE PROBABLY 
REACHED THEIR PEAK AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WINDS WILL 
BE BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PANAMA BY TUE 
AFTERNOON BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER PAPAGAYO FOR A FEW DAYS.

$$
BERG