000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 6N115W 9N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N E OF 115W. 
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS OVER MEXICO WITH MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 20N MOSTLY EAST OF 105W.  
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL PASS EAST OF THE 
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH 
EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE ITCZ AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ENHANCED 
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 12N FROM 108W TO 115W. 

ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
NORTHWEST OF A LINE 32N133W 23N140W. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST 
OVER THE AREA THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES 
NORTHEAST THE TROUGH IS REINFORCED FROM THE WEST. THE RESULT 
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
SOME EMBEDDED RAIN IS FROM 26N TO 31N FROM 132W TO 139W. THERE 
ARE INDICATIONS OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
28N138W.  

THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 22N WEST OF 128W IS COVERED BY 
MULTI LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUDS. THE MOISTURE IS FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOSTLY 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN 240 NM OF THE POINT 
17N138W. THE FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS DIVERGENT 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS PRODUCING THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 13N WEST OF A LINE 32N117W 15N100W. 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A BROAD TROUGH.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 
KNOTS IN 18 HOURS THEN DECREASE TO 20 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 
KNOTS IN 18 HOURS AND LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS.

$$
LL