000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101617
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N76W  5N87W  2N98W  9N130W  8N140W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 130W ADVECTS PLENTY OF 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NE.  WEAK WESTERLY 85 KT JTST ROUNDING CREST 
LIKELY BRING THAT WATER TOO LATE INTO E PAC WHERE SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH ALOFT CAN USE FOR ITCZ CONVECTION.  SHORT WAVE ROUNDING 
BASE TO LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 115W ENHANCING MINOR ITCZ 
CONVECTION.  WEAK 75 KT JTST BRINGS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ INTO GULF 
OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO FEED ISOLATED CONVECTION. 

BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMPLETES E PAC SCENE E OF TROUGH 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND WRN CARIBBEAN.  AIR MASS REMAINS VERY 
DRY DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF110W.

ON THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 36N135W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N105W 
WITH BRISK TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-20N W OF 125W.  RIDGE EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS BUT NW SWELLS SHOULD LINGER W OF 110W 
THROUGH PERIOD.  GFS DEVELOPS SUSPICIOUS LOW PRES NEAR 15N133W 
BY END OF PERIOD WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW WEAK TROUGH.  
FORECAST KEEPS LOW PRES OUT TILL BETTER HANDLE IS ASCERTAINED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS INCREASING AS RIDGE AFFECTING TRADES 
FLOW OVER CARIBBEAN STRENGTHENS.  SIMILARLY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GAP WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY BUT WEAKEN WITHIN 48 HRS ONCE 
HIGH PRES FOLLOWING GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES E.  

$$
WALLY BARNES