000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 4N96W 5N110W 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR 3N83W 5N86W AND 12N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N115W TO 12N123W AND FROM 9N124W 
TO 10N130W TO 11N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG A 35N127W TO 15N140W AXIS 
TONIGHT. RIDGE CONTAMINATED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
STREAMING NE FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
WESTERLIES ALSO WORKING ON THE RIDGE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES 
MOVING EWD. ONE OFF THE SW BAJA COAST DRIFTING E AND ANOTHER 
OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG 140W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 24 HR AS 
UPPER SUPPORT WANES. CONSEQUENTLY NE TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 
15 TO 20 KT S OF 25N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE 
MOSTLY LIGHT NWLY WITH NW SWELL 6 TO 9 FT. GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY 
LIGHT EXCEPT FOR PAPAGAYO SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.

LATER DAY 1 SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES EWD WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE 
TRYING TO HANGE ON ALONG 120W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 
PACIFIC RIDGE KIND OF IN TWO SECTIONS..ONE NE/SW OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA SUPPORTING NE WINDS TO 20 KT AND A WEAKER 
SEGMENT WITH AXIS FROM 25N122W TO 15N105W SUPPORTING ELY TRADES 
TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 120W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA 
COAST REMAIN LIGHT NWLY. GAP WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND 
NW CARIBBEAN.

FOR DAY 2 GFS MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING TWO 
CENTERS. ONE A RIDGE CENTER ALONG 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 125W WITH 
AN AXIS EXTENDING NW TO 25N122W. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF WITH A CENTER NEAR 
27N137W. ALSO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWD E OF 115W OVER 
MEXICO ALLOWING COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SETTLE SWD. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 PACIFIC RIDGE TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE THE DUEL PATTERN OF 
DAY 1 WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. TRADE PATTERN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST REMAIN LIGHT. GAP WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 
THE SAME WITH WINDS TO 25 KT.  

$$
RRG