000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...5N78W 2N92W 7N110W 9N125W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
AREA 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 8N130W 9N140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
WELL MARKED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE 
32N125W 25N123W 21N115W 25N105W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST AND 
WILL BE OVER MEXICO IN 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS EAST OF 115W AND SOUTH OF 26N TO 
20N INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
SOME OF THE CENTRAL MEXICO MAINLAND COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
TROUGH IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE ITCZ FROM 102W 
TO 110W. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SOME CONVECTION 
IN THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.

THE REMINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  AN AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE AND MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 130W.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 112W. REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA IS ANALYZED AS BROAD TROUGH.

WEAK GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION OF 20 TO 
OCCASIONALLY 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION IN 18 HOURS WINDS WILL REACH TO 30 KNOTS IN 
36 HOURS.
 
$$
LL